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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Abortion and Family Structure: Two Inseparable Issues

Abortion and family structure—two leading social issues of our day—are sometimes pitted as mutually exclusive issues. However, statistics mined by the Marriage and Religion Research Institute (MARRI) challenge this hypothesis. The National Survey of Family Growth (a large survey conducted by National Center for Health Statistics division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) showed that, among women aged 38 to 44, having had multiple abortions was least common among those raised in an intact family with two married biological parents.

MARRI’s “Mapping America” highlights two noteworthy points. First, women who were raised in married families with their mother and father present were least likely to have had multiple abortions than women from all other family structures (see Chart 1). The average American agrees, at the very least, that abortion is not a good to be sought after. Still, some liberal propagandists claim that it is not possible to decrease abortions and increase the number of intact families. According to them, unmarried women will inevitably get pregnant, and, unless the woman aborts her child, she will be a single mother. However, this logic is missing a key point: if more women were raised in intact married families to begin with, then fewer women would get pregnant out of wedlock. Decreasing abortion—a commonsense goal regardless of one’s stance on the sanctity of life—necessitates an increase in the number of intact families.

Chart 1

A second compelling point Mapping America highlights is the inherent value of marriage and the insufficiency of cohabitation. Chart 2 shows that roughly the same number of women raised by their biological father alone and with no father figure at all had multiple abortions. Most interesting, multiple abortions were least common among women raised by their biological father married to their biological mother, and most common among women raised by their biological father cohabiting with their biological mother. In fact, four times as many women with cohabiting parents rather than married parents had abortions. Although both groups of women were raised by their biological mother and father in a close relationship, the nature of the relationship contributed to very different outcomes. 




Chart 2

Far from being unrelated to abortion, family structure contributes to sexual mores that impact the rate of out-of-wedlock pregnancies and abortions. An intact, married family is a social good that must be sought after in all instances.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Support Marriage- Promote Women's Health

Adding to the discussion on women’s health, a recent survey reported that 40.2 percent of women - compared to 29.5 percent of men - reported an unmet medical need due to costs within the last year (*note, however, this is a biased figure and the disparity is actually lower). There is much speculation on the causes for this disproportionate need of women, but identifying a driver is quite simple: the deterioration of marriage. Marriage lifts women out of poverty. Divorce and cohabitation keep women in poverty.

Marriage provides a number of (intuitive) economic benefits to women. Married women share income with their husbands, and are able to optimize the division of labor for a household. Married couples enjoy, on average, larger incomes, greater net worth, and greater year-to-year net worth growth. Not surprisingly, marriage raises the long-run family income of children born to single parents by 45 percent.

Divorce does the opposite. Divorce causes women to disproportionately bear the brunt of poverty. Family income falls by 41 percent and family food consumption falls by 18 percent in the year following a divorce. Divorce is the main factor in determining the length of “poverty spells,” particularly for women whose pre-divorce family income was in the bottom half of the income distribution.

Although it might seem that cohabitation can provide the same economic benefits as marriage, it in fact cannot truly alleviate the feminization of poverty.  Cohabitation is temporary (with a roughly 50% failure rate), and the men in cohabitation are less attached to the labor market than married men. Cohabiters share fewer resources, since their bonds are less assured. Cohabitation, therefore, lacks all the natural gains of marriage (security, labor market benefits such as insurance, and the pooling of resources). Preferring cohabitation over marriage in our policies means preferring a modality of life that cannot deliver the benefits to women’s health coverage that marriage can.

If we want to promote women’s health, we really must discourage divorce and cohabitation. and encourage marriage.  Studies have already shown that married women rate their health better than divorced, separated, widowed, and never-married women do. Married women’s ability to cover their medical costs is one of the many reasons why. 


*According to the Urban Institute: “Questions on unmet need for contraceptive prescriptions or other family planning services were only asked of female respondents. Respondents may report an unmet need because of cost for more than one type of service, so sums may exceed the share reporting any unmet need because of cost.”

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Wonk Wong

By Henry Potrykus

The Washington Post recently posed the question of how we should react to the “unbelievable” finding that marriage is dissolving and single parenthood is rising in America.  The Post makes “clear:” “none of the findings [on which it relies] mean that children would necessarily be better off if their biological parents married.”

From that point of clarity, the Post (and the researchers on whom it relies) goes on to advocate that for the sake of postponing motherhood, more educational and career opportunities must be created for lower-educated women.  This, says the Post, should go along with the rather broad policy of improving the economic prospects of “suitable partners” those women are “searching for.”

First off, it’s downright un-American to be against more education.  This we must all stand for, even if a degree does not confer human capital as we expect (human capital: the skills, capacities, and know-how of value in the labor market), and even if the newly minted grads simply end up part-time baristas with a fat bill to pay.  So, for this rebuttal, let me put the policy aside.  Soundly critiquing such policies requires a more thorough examination of economic sociology.

Here, let me rebut the Post’s logic.  The Post is wrong when it says two sociologists’ work - the statistics of McLanahan and Jenks - mean the problem of non-marriage demands a solution “far beyond marriage.”

Now, the Post relies on work by McLanahan and Jenks, who caveated their findings:  Recall the laden term “necessarily” quoted above.

The real issue is what do statistics say for policy, and, specifically, what does research on marriage in America say for policy? 

Here’s the easy part: statistics are about the general - usually average - case.  So of course they don’t speak to something necessarily affecting any given individual.  They speak to what generally happens.  Governance is also best construed around the general, so statistics do have a use there.

Here’s the harder part, which is about the methodologies employed by researchers nowadays.  That is, it’s about science:  Researchers have more or less three classes of tools to study a phenomenon like marriage.  One is descriptive statistics, the second is called regression, and the third are - sometime occult - analyses of “natural” experiments.

Let’s put aside descriptive statistics (even though the work of McLanahan and Jenks has many nice figures); work by McLanahan and Jenks and other sociologists should be considered at par when they involve so-called multiple regression analysis.  These analyses show the simultaneous influence of different factors on some outcome.  Informally, if you say a group’s workforce participation level (a pro-social activity of interest to the Post and McLanahan and Jenks) is to be found irrespective of that group’s proclivity to be married you contradict this second type of analysis.  These analyses say that marriage influences partners’ workforce participation.

Of course, we are not interested in whether marriage and working are merely correlated.  Maybe only the guys already with jobs get the girls (in marriage of course).

This is where the hard part comes to a head:  Sophisticated analyses of the third type can show that the dissolution of marriage actually does affect behaviors and prospects, and does affect the outcomes of the children the Post wants helped.  Sophisticated analyses do uncover a positive effect of marriage on social outcomes.  These analyses confirm the more basic, second kind of analyses.

Let me reiterate that: The workhorse, more basic analyses of sociology tend not to be wrong-headed.  In fact, good analysis of the second type does point to causal relations.  It is just not in itself completely conclusive.  It nevertheless tends to align correctly - and even quantitatively - with the much more difficultly arrived-at causal analyses.  (There are reasons for this.)

We are at the end of the critique of the Post’s logic:  Children in general would be better off if their biological parents married.  Just because sociology’s baseline method (regression) is not totally conclusive, one cannot infer that that method shows things that are not there.  Saying “this fact is uncertainly arrived at, so it is false” is a bad inference!  (Marriage is important to social outcomes even if all that science we fund through NSF grants shows it!)

Even without delving deeper into the science, we can nonetheless conclude that the Post cannot make the inference it wants: none of this body of evidence means the problem of non-marriage demands a solution “far beyond” marriage itself. 

Quite the contrary: Solutions are found within marriage.  Sophisticated studies indicate marriage causes positive behavior changes that are [very] difficult to affect otherwise. 

The good analyses of the second type which line up with the causal studies show the same.  If the Post wants the economic prospects of “suitable partners” to improve, I suggest it stop looking “far beyond” an empirically proven means of doing so.

To close, I want to confess my own befuddlement in the Post’s choosing to call the last few decades’ flight from marriage “unbelievable.”  The calamity follows on the heels of the sexual revolution.  According to the Post, one behavior doesn’t beget another?  No, we should be about as bewildered by this - yes, seismic  - shift away from marriage as we would be in observing people buying more bananas once the price of bananas falls. 

And that elementary point should be what we pivot on to get back to good policy.